■ We went to bed on Saturday night without a government, and we may wait for weeks before we get one. The preliminary vote count put Labour and National in a near dead heat, with Labour ahead on the party vote by roughly 3650 votes, 29.4 percent to 29.2 percent, writes Dr Mawera Karetai

Yet, on seats it is the National-led coalition that holds the edge, with 67 in a 131-seat House where 66 are needed to govern.

Christopher Luxon called it “an MMP special”, too close to call. Chris Hipkins did not concede, telling supporters that every vote must now be counted.

How the runner-up can still govern comes down to the overhang – a term we rarely heard until this election cycle.

National won 42 electorate seats, more than its 29 percent share entitles it to, so it brings in no list MPs.

Te Pāti Māori won five of the seven Māori electorates on just 0.57 percent of the party vote, after openly asking its voters to give their electorate vote to the party and their party vote to Labour or the Greens.

Between them the two parties have pushed Parliament from 120 seats to 131, the largest overhang of the MMP era.

The strategy worked for Te Pāti Māori and saved them from being eliminated this election cycle.

Co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said the party’s single objective was to remove the government, however, on election night numbers that goal remains out of reach.

Labour won the other two Māori seats, including Te Tai Tonga, and Rawiri Waititi has argued that Labour’s refusal to back the overhang approach cost Hipkins the top job.

Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick took a sharper view of the overhang tactics and the new enrolment rules, saying “the system has been gamed.”

My own view is that billionaires are playing chess with our lives, and they paid for this chaos.

National’s own position is less comfortable than its seat count suggests. Its party vote has fallen almost nine points since 2023, and because no list candidates get in, it loses some of its most senior people.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis, second on the list, will not return. Chris Bishop trails in Hutt South, and Speaker Gerry Brownlee and Paul Goldsmith are also leaving.

The right bloc won about 50 percent of the party vote, down from 56 percent in 2023.

ACT, on nearly 11 percent, and New Zealand First, close to 10, both grew, so any third term would be one in which the junior partners carry far more weight. It is not just the weight that bothers me – it’s the power.

In this last term, the minor parties had far too much influence in deciding the direction of our country, and they wielded that power mercilessly in fast tracking, in urgency, and in general disrespect of the electorate.

The other headline belongs to The Opportunity Party.

Under Qiulae Wong the party cleared the 5 percent threshold on its fourth attempt and enters Parliament with seven MPs, the first party under MMP to do so without having been founded by sitting or former MPs.

Luxon ruled out working with Opportunity throughout the campaign, and if the specials shift even one seat, that promise will be tested.

Even ACT’s David Seymour admitted he had been puzzled by National’s stance.

I suspect Luxon will be making either an apology or a farewell.

Everything now rests on the special votes.

The Electoral Commission’s figures suggest around 400,000 remain, roughly 14 percent of the total, and the official result is due on November 27.

Specials have historically leaned left, and in 2023 they cost National two seats.

Electoral law expert Andrew Geddis has set out three plausible endings: A narrow coalition hold, a 65-65 deadlock, or a one-seat majority for the left if the close electorates break that way.

Te Tai Tokerau is separated by 436 votes, Mt Roskill by 262, Wellington Bays by 140 and Wairarapa by 139.

Oddly, a Green win in Te Tai Tokerau would shrink the overhang and cost the left a seat.

There is another one no-one is talking about – a Labour/National coalition, which might be the best option right now.

There is an interesting wee warning in the numbers.

Turnout is estimated at 74.6 percent of those enrolled, down from 78.2 percent last time, despite a sharp rise in advance voting.

This was the first election held under the Electoral Amendment Act 2025, which closed enrolment 13 days before polling day and removed the vote from prisoners, and special votes appear to be down by around 30 percent.

How much those changes explain, and the motivation behind them deserves some careful study, but of course, with the Government removing all the funding to examine such things, who will tell that story?

For now, the Government continues in caretaker mode and the parties wait.

Whoever governs will do so with the narrowest of mandates, in a Parliament where the smaller parties and the Māori seats hold real leverage. That is uncomfortable for the major parties, but it is how MMP distributes power when voters refuse to hand either side a clear win.

Interesting times for sure.