■ A fortnightly business advice column by Whakatāne accountant and business adviser Jason Lougher

New Zealand confidence is at a 12-year high. Nearly half of business owners are thinking about quitting. Both headlines are true. Both belong to you.

Picture two business owners. They both run small businesses in the Bay of Plenty. They both work long hours. They both showed up this week even when they didn’t feel like it.

One of them just read that New Zealand business confidence has hit a 12-year high and felt a flicker of genuine hope.

The other read the same headline and nearly laughed.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: they might be the same person.

Face one – the confident face

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, released in early 2026, found a net 39 percent of New Zealand firms expect better general economic conditions in the months ahead.

That’s the most optimistic reading since March 2014.

This face is real.

Some Bay of Plenty businesses are genuinely turning a corner.

Infometrics' Quarterly Economic Monitor shows tourism expenditure in the Whakatāne district climbed 6.9 percent to $171 million in the year to December 2025 (compared to 1.1 percent nationally).

Manufacturing confidence is leading the charge. For some businesses the recovery isn’t just a headline.

Face two – the face nobody sees

Nearly half of New Zealand small business owners are considering walking away from their businesses entirely.

Three quarters say this financial year has been more taxing on their mental health than any previous year.

This face is also real.

New Zealand’s small businesses ranked last out of 11 Asia-Pacific markets for growth for the second year in a row.

Only 38 percent reported any growth in 2025.

Just 5 percent plan to launch a new product or service in 2026, compared to a regional average of 29 percent.

Insolvencies hit a 15-year high in 2025, their worst level since the GFC, even as the confidence surveys soar.

This face goes home tired. It lies awake. It wonders if the next quarter will finally be different.

The split

What makes this moment particularly hard is that both faces belong to the same economy, the same region, and very often the same person on different days.

The businesses making it through share a few things in common.

They’ve been deliberate about their cash position, often renegotiating payment terms with both customers and suppliers.

They’ve stayed close to their core customers rather than chasing growth for its own sake.

And many of them have found a way, formally or informally, to talk about the pressures they’re facing rather than carrying them alone.

If face two feels more familiar than face one right now, you’re not failing the recovery.

You’re in the part of it the headlines don’t reach.

Business Mentors New Zealand, your local chamber of commerce and the regional business support network, all offer access to people who have sat with both faces before.

■ Jason Lougher is the owner of Calc Business Advisors & Chartered Accountants. Our team advise businesses throughout the Eastern Bay of Plenty — and across New Zealand. Like this article or want to chat? Feel free to send me an email: [email protected]